All revolutionary changes go through a hatching phase when the idea is brewing in the mind. It is followed by the phase when a few accept it and thereby it enters the stage of experimentation and implementation in life and in terms of real time. When this acceptance and practice reaches a critical point then it spreads suddenly in large masses through the morphogenetic resonance, which is also called as a tipping point of the hundredth monkey. This means that the new idea-force has been accepted by the physical mind or the mind of the earth and integrated in the common life of humanity. That is how religions are formed and they spread.
However these religions also eventually go through the last phase when the new idea-force has become a spent force. Its term is over and what was once a source of hope becomes a cause of evil. Slowly the kernel of truth withdraws from the human world into the secrecy of its Silence and what was once the throne of God is occupied by the Asura of Falsehood and the practices turn into either mechanical rituals or means to hold a mass of mankind together for socio-political purposes. The idea-force finally disintegrated rapidly after a certain critical portion of humanity has rejected it. There are efforts to revive it by bringing out its core until it reaches a point of no return from where it cannot revert again.
The Supramental Manifestation is likely to follow a similar curve except that it is going to be the curve of constant ascension and no possibility of disintegration. There will be no crystallization into fixed format Religion this time but a constant progress from light to greater Light, height to greater Heights, delight to greater Delight.
My own impression is that the first phase, the acceptance of the New Idea-Force is already over. The second phase is going on at different levels and at a different pace in different people. The third has just begun. The human ways of thinking and doing do not apply to the these processes as the Divine Consciousness is much wiser and uses error to build knowledge and forces evil to release its secret good.